MeritValue

CHURCH & DWIGHT CO INC /DE/

CHDdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CHURCH & DWIGHT CO INC /DE/ earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $31.25 and $53.48 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.19B1$5.38B2$5.87B3$6.11B3$6.2B3
Net income$827.5M4$413.9M5$755.6M6$585.3M6$736.8M6
Operating cash flow$993.8M7$885.2M8$1.03B9$1.16B9$1.22B9
Capital expenditure$118.8M10$178.8M11$223.5M12$179.8M12$122.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$875M7$706.4M8$807.1M9$976.4M9$1.09B9
Total debt$5.71B13$5.34B13$4.81B14$4.41B15$4.41B15
Cash & equivalents$240.6M16$270.3M17$344.5M18$964.1M19$409M19
Diluted shares249.6M246.3M247.6M246.9M244.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$163.82
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$30.16
Free cash flow it threw off
$44.74
Debt you’d be carrying
$180.52

10 shares is a claim on $163.82 of net worth that earned you $30.16 and generated $44.74 of cash last year, against $180.52 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 6%FY23 10%FY24 8%FY25 10%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 23% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $31.25 and $53.48 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$53.48
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth3.7%
  • fcfBase$976.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$50.77
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth3.7%
  • fcfBase$976.4M
Earnings Power Value
$31.25
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$736.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$33.36
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years3.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $50.77
The three cases
Bear0.0%$40.73
Base3.7%$50.77
Bull8.7%$66.58

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 3.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015810 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-019801 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-048139 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015810 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-019801 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-048139 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015810 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-019801 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-048139 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015810 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-019801 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-048139 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015810 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-019801 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-048139 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003066 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015810 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-019801 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-048139 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)