MeritValue

CITY HOLDING CO

CHCOdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CITY HOLDING CO earns about 70% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $81.83 and $240.77 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$64.9M1$68.1M2$69.1M3$72M3$74.3M3
Net income$88.1M4$102.1M5$114.4M6$117.1M6$130.5M6
Operating cash flow$102.3M7$115.8M8$137.6M9$131.9M9$131.4M9
Capital expenditure$3.32M10$2.14M11$2.96M12$2.71M12$2.92M12
Free cash flow (derived)$99M7$113.7M8$134.6M9$129.2M9$128.4M9
Total debt—$013$100M14$150M15$150M15
Cash & equivalents$634.6M16$200M17$156.3M18$225.4M19$191.9M19
Diluted shares15.4M14.9M14.9M14.7M14.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$559.09
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$90.1
Free cash flow it threw off
$88.69
Debt you’d be carrying
$103.58

10 shares is a claim on $559.09 of net worth that earned you $90.1 and generated $88.69 of cash last year, against $103.58 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
70% avg · 5y
FY21 206%FY22 29%FY23 25%FY24 45%FY25 42%

It earned about 70% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $81.83 and $240.77 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$240.77
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth9.3%
  • fcfBase$129.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$192.52
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth9.3%
  • fcfBase$129.2M
Earnings Power Value
$81.83
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$114.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$105.99
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years9.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $192.52
The three cases
Bear0.0%$130.35
Base9.3%$192.52
Bull14.3%$235.35

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 9.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000726854-24-000040 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000726854-25-000037 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000726854-26-000062 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000726854-24-000040 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000726854-25-000037 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000726854-26-000062 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000726854-24-000040 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000726854-25-000037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000726854-26-000062 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000726854-24-000040 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000726854-25-000037 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000726854-26-000062 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000726854-24-000040 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000726854-25-000037 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000726854-26-000062 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000726854-23-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000726854-24-000040 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000726854-25-000037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000726854-26-000062 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)