MeritValue

Comstock Holding Companies, Inc.

CHCIdata completeness 75%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. earns about 40% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 15% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $13.47 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$31.1M1$39.3M2$44.7M3$51.3M4$62.9M4
Net income$13.6M5$7.35M6$7.78M7$14.6M8$17.1M8
Operating cash flow$8.69M9$8.4M10$9M11$10.7M12$4.8M12
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$5.5M13————
Cash & equivalents$15.8M14$11.7M15$18.8M16$28.8M17$31.3M17
Diluted shares9.1M9.6M10.1M10.3M10.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$66.83
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.29
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $66.83 of net worth that earned you $16.29 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
40% avg · 5y
FY21 31%FY22 44%FY23 43%FY24 48%FY25 35%

It earned an average 40% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+15% shares · 5y

Share count is up 15% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$13.47
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$13.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001299969-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001299969-24-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001299969-25-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018409 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001299969-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001299969-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001299969-25-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018409 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001299969-22-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001299969-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001299969-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018409 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001299969-22-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001299969-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001299969-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001299969-25-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018409 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)