Creative Global Technology Holdings Ltd

CGTLdata completeness 75%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Creative Global Technology Holdings Ltd earns about 27% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 18% over 4 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.49 and $1.44 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$27.9M1$50.3M2$35.6M2$21.2M2
Net income$3.41M3$3.16M4$4.28M4−$13.4M4
Operating cash flow$654,4885$4.87M6−$3.52M6−$4.81M6
Capital expenditure$17,1437$3,7848$18,5978
Free cash flow (derived)$637,3455$4.87M6−$3.54M6
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$959,3009$4.31M10$443,32211$185,24011
Diluted shares20.0M20.0M20.0M23.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$7.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.67
Free cash flow it threw off
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $7.65 of net worth that earned you −$5.67 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
27% avg · 4y
FY22 67%FY23 64%FY24 33%FY25 -58%

It earned about 27% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+18% shares · 4y

Share count is up 18% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.49 and $1.44 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.53
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$637,345
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.49
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$637,345
Earnings Power Value
$1.44
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.28M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.49
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.39
Base5.0%$0.49
Bull10.0%$0.6

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-008172 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001213900-26-009962 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-008172 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001213900-26-009962 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-008172 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001213900-26-009962 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-008172 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001213900-26-009962 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001213900-26-009962 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-008172 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001213900-26-009962 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)