CG Oncology, Inc.

CGONdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

CG Oncology, Inc. earns about -17% on equity, but has diluted owners by 1685% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	$204,000¹	$1.14M¹	$4.04M¹
Net income	−$48.6M²	−$88M²	−$161M²
Operating cash flow	−$45.7M³	−$78.7M³	−$132.3M³
Capital expenditure	—	$234,000⁴	$134,000⁴
Free cash flow (derived)	—	−$78.9M³	−$132.5M³
Total debt	—	$0⁵	$3M⁵
Cash & equivalents	$8.27M⁶	$257.1M⁷	$32.5M⁷
Diluted shares	4.3M	62.5M	77.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$97.36

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$20.83

Free cash flow it threw off

−$17.14

Debt you’d be carrying

$0.39

10 shares is a claim on $97.36 of net worth that earned you −$20.83 and generated −$17.14 of cash last year, against $0.39 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on equity

-17% avg · 3y

FY23 —FY24 -12%FY25 -21%

It earned an average -17% on equity over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+1685% shares · 3y

Share count is up 1685% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-079498 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-079498 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-079498 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-079498 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-079498 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046351 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-079498 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)