MeritValue

COGNEX CORP

CGNXdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

COGNEX CORP earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $7 and $12.86 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.04B1$1.01B2$837.5M3$914.5M3$994.4M3
Net income$279.9M4$215.5M5$113.2M6$106.2M6$114.4M6
Operating cash flow$314.1M7$243.4M8$112.9M9$149.1M9$245.5M9
Capital expenditure$15.5M10$19.7M11$23.1M12$15M12$8.74M12
Free cash flow (derived)$298.6M7$223.7M8$89.8M9$134M9$236.8M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$186.2M13$181.4M14$202.7M15$186.1M16$262.9M16
Diluted shares179.9M174.9M173.4M172.6M169.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$88.09
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6.76
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.98
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $88.09 of net worth that earned you $6.76 and generated $13.98 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 22%FY22 17%FY23 9%FY24 8%FY25 9%

It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7 and $12.86 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$12.01
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$134M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$134M
Earnings Power Value
$7
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$114.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$11.61
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.86
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.86
Base0.0%$12.86
Bull5.0%$15.6

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000851205-24-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000851205-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000851205-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000851205-24-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000851205-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000851205-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000851205-24-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000851205-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000851205-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000851205-24-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000851205-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000851205-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000851205-23-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000851205-24-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000851205-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000851205-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)