MeritValue

Cognyte Software Ltd.

CGNTdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Cognyte Software Ltd. earns about -10% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 10% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.89 and $9.51 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$474M1$312.1M2$313.4M3$350.6M3$400M3
Net income−$14.9M4−$114.1M5−$15.6M6−$12.1M6−$638,0006
Operating cash flow$2.63M7−$37M8$34.6M9$46.8M9$40.3M9
Capital expenditure$11.8M10$8.27M11$7.04M12$10.6M12$10.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$9.13M7−$45.3M8$27.5M9$36.2M9$29.9M9
Total debt$100M13$013———
Cash & equivalents$152.6M14$34.6M15$74.5M16$112.7M16$116.9M16
Diluted shares66.6M67.9M70.1M71.8M72.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$28.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.09
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.11
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $28.33 of net worth that earned you −$0.09 and generated $4.11 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-10% avg · 5y
FY22 2%FY23 -47%FY24 -8%FY25 -4%FY26 6%

It earned about -10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+10% shares · 5y

Share count is up 10% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.89 and $9.51 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$9.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$29.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$8.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$29.9M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $8.89
The three cases
Bear0.0%$7.47
Base5.0%$8.89
Bull10.0%$10.59

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001824814-24-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001824814-25-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001824814-26-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001824814-24-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001824814-25-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001824814-26-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001824814-24-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001824814-25-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001824814-26-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001824814-24-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001824814-25-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001824814-26-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001824814-23-000009 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001824814-24-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001824814-25-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001824814-26-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)