MeritValue

COMPUGEN LTD

CGENdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

COMPUGEN LTD earns about 38% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 11% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.89 and $7.39 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6M1$7.5M2$33.5M3$27.9M3$72.8M3
Net income−$34.2M4−$33.7M5−$18.8M6−$14.2M6$35.3M6
Operating cash flow−$22.7M7−$34.1M8−$35.9M9$49.6M9$31.6M9
Capital expenditure$292,00010$477,00011$172,00012$118,00012$306,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$23M7−$34.6M8−$36.1M9$49.5M9$31.3M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$7.8M13$11.1M14$13.9M15$18.2M15$90.6M15
Diluted shares84.2M86.6M87.6M89.5M93.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$10.95
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.77
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.34
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $10.95 of net worth that earned you $3.77 and generated $3.34 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
38% avg · 5y
FY21 -27%FY22 -40%FY23 -15%FY24 -21%FY25 291%

It earned about 38% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+11% shares · 5y

Share count is up 11% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.89 and $7.39 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$7.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$31.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$6.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$31.3M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$3.06
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $6.89
The three cases
Bear0.0%$5.74
Base5.0%$6.89
Bull10.0%$8.27

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000818 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000679 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000663 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000818 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000679 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000663 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000818 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000679 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000663 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000818 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000679 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000663 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000818 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000679 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000663 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)