MeritValue

Cullinan Therapeutics, Inc.

CGEMdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Cullinan Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -21% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 40% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$18.9M1$01———
Net income−$65.6M2$111.2M3−$153.2M4−$167.4M5−$219.9M5
Operating cash flow−$43.4M6−$126.7M7−$134.3M8−$145.3M9−$175.8M9
Capital expenditure$010$1.13M11$208,00012$013$49,00013
Free cash flow (derived)−$43.4M6−$127.8M7−$134.5M8−$145.3M9−$175.8M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$59.8M14$156.2M15$98.4M16$83M17$88.3M17
Diluted shares43.1M46.6M41.5M58.5M60.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$67.85
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$36.5
Free cash flow it threw off
−$29.18
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $67.85 of net worth that earned you −$36.5 and generated −$29.18 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-21% avg · 5y
FY21 -15%FY22 29%FY23 -38%FY24 -26%FY25 -54%

It earned an average -21% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+40% shares · 5y

Share count is up 40% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006839 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006839 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031143 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028346 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-099362 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006839 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031143 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028346 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-099362 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006839 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031143 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028346 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-099362 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006839 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031143 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028346 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-099362 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)