MeritValue

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.

CGBDdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. earns about 10% on equity, but has diluted owners by 16% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $13.36 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$160.4M1$85.6M2$92.3M3$89M3$70M3
Operating cash flow$75.4M4$14.5M5$230.6M6$104.3M6−$204.6M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$1.04B7$1.08B8$980.2M9$960.9M10$1.53B10
Cash & equivalents$93.1M11$30.5M12$60.4M12$56.6M12$76.5M12
Diluted shares59.5M57.5M56.3M56.5M69.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$169.09
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.14
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$221.79

10 shares is a claim on $169.09 of net worth that earned you $10.14 last year, against $221.79 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
10% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 9%FY23 10%FY24 10%FY25 6%

It earned an average 10% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+16% shares · 5y

Share count is up 16% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 47% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$13.36
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$89M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$19.6
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001544206-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001544206-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001544206-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001544206-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001544206-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001544206-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001544206-23-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001544206-24-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001544206-25-000011 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001544206-26-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001544206-25-000011 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001544206-26-000013 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)