MeritValue

Centerra Gold Inc.

CGAUdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Centerra Gold Inc. earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 27% of its shares over 4 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.67 and $13.47 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023
Revenue$721.3M1$900.1M2$850.2M3$1.09B3
Net income$408.5M4−$381.8M5−$77.2M6−$81.3M6
Operating cash flow$930M7$414.8M8−$1.98M9$245.6M9
Capital expenditure$103.6M10$92.5M11$80.9M12$85.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$826.5M7$322.3M8−$82.9M9$160.3M9
Total debt—$013$014$015
Cash & equivalents$545.2M16$947.2M17$531.9M17$612.9M17
Diluted shares294.7M297.1M218.4M215.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$77.69
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.77
Free cash flow it threw off
$7.44
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $77.69 of net worth that earned you −$3.77 and generated $7.44 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 4y
FY20 1%FY21 37%FY22 -3%FY23 1%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−27% shares · 4y

Share count is down 27% over 4 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.67 and $13.47 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$12.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$160.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$13.47
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$160.3M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $13.47
The three cases
Bear0.0%$13.47
Base0.0%$13.47
Bull5.0%$16.04

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001171843-22-002015 (Revenue)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001854640-23-000019 (Revenue)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001854640-24-000011 (Revenue)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001171843-22-002015 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001854640-23-000019 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001854640-24-000011 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001171843-22-002015 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001854640-23-000019 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001854640-24-000011 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001171843-22-002015 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001854640-23-000019 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001854640-24-000011 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-22-002015 (Borrowings)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001854640-23-000019 (Borrowings)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001854640-24-000011 (Borrowings)
  16. 40-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001854640-23-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  17. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001854640-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalents)