CULLEN/FROST BANKERS, INC.

CFRdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

CULLEN/FROST BANKERS, INC. earns about 15% on equity, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $94.18 and $209.82 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$83.3M1$91.9M2$93.5M3$106.2M3$121.6M3
Net income$443.1M4$579.2M5$598M6$582.5M6$648.6M6
Operating cash flow$648.3M7$722.6M8$478.8M9$989.5M9$274M9
Capital expenditure$65.9M10$102.5M11$158.6M12$127.8M12$146.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$582.4M7$620.1M8$320.2M9$861.8M9$127.3M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$16.6B13$12B14$8.69B14$10.2B14$8.87B14
Diluted shares64.1M64.5M64.4M64.3M64.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$713.43
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$101.18
Free cash flow it threw off
$19.86
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $713.43 of net worth that earned you $101.18 and generated $19.86 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
15% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 18%FY23 16%FY24 15%FY25 14%

It earned about 15% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $94.18 and $209.82 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$204.44
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$320.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$209.82
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$320.2M
Earnings Power Value
$94.18
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$582.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$126.19
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $209.82
The three cases
Bear0.0%$209.82
Base0.0%$209.82
Bull5.0%$227.09

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000039263-24-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000039263-25-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000039263-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000039263-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000039263-25-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000039263-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000039263-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000039263-25-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000039263-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000039263-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000039263-25-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000039263-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000039263-25-000017 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000039263-26-000011 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)