MeritValue

CapForce Inc.

CFORdata completeness 88%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CapForce Inc. earns about -2% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 452% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.31M1$2.61M2$3.42M3$5.2M4$30.2M4
Net income−$34.8M5−$37.3M6−$32.7M7$12M8$23.6M8
Operating cash flow−$21.5M9−$20.4M10−$14.3M11−$4.87M12−$1.18M12
Capital expenditure$1.98M13$590,77214$800,41215—$50,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$23.5M9−$21M10−$15.1M11—−$1.23M12
Total debt$36.2M17$11.9M18$10.9M18——
Cash & equivalents$36.1M19$7.44M20$1.15M21$1.31M22$531,27722
Diluted shares1.8M244,158787,8325.2M10.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$31.45
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$23.32
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.22
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $31.45 of net worth that earned you $23.32 and generated −$1.22 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-2% avg · 5y
FY21 -57%FY22 -224%FY23 —FY24 198%FY25 75%

It earned an average -2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+452% shares · 5y

Share count is up 452% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 70% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$12.81
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001079973-22-000358 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001829126-24-003930 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001829126-25-006628 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001829126-26-005672 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001079973-23-000391 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001829126-24-003930 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001829126-25-006628 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001829126-26-005672 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001079973-23-000391 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001829126-24-003930 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001829126-25-006628 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001829126-26-005672 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001079973-23-000391 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001829126-24-003930 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001829126-25-006628 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001829126-26-005672 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001079973-23-000391 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001829126-24-003930 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001079973-23-000391 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001829126-24-003930 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001829126-25-006628 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001829126-26-005672 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)