MeritValue

CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP INC/RI

CFGdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP INC/RI earns about 18% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $43.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.33B1$1.3B2$1.27B3$1.53B3$1.64B3
Net income$2.32B4$2.07B5$1.61B6$1.51B6$1.83B6
Operating cash flow$2.28B7$4.12B8$2.96B9$2B9$2.21B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$7.01B10$15.9B11$14B12$12.4B13$11.3B13
Cash & equivalents$9.16B14$10.5B15$11.6B15$10.6B15$12.7B15
Diluted shares427.4M477.8M476.7M453.5M436.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$602.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$41.91
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$258.23

10 shares is a claim on $602.37 of net worth that earned you $41.91 last year, against $258.23 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 10%FY23 18%FY24 23%FY25 26%

It earned an average 18% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 61% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$43.43
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.83B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$72.33
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000759944-24-000039 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000759944-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000759944-26-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000759944-24-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000759944-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000759944-26-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000759944-24-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000759944-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000759944-26-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000759944-23-000029 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000759944-24-000039 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000759944-25-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000759944-26-000028 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000759944-25-000013 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000759944-26-000028 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)