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CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP INC/RI

CFGdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP INC/RI earns about 18% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $41.91 a share. Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.33B1$1.3B2$1.27B3$1.53B3$1.64B3
Net income$2.32B4$2.07B5$1.61B6$1.51B6$1.83B6
Operating cash flow$2.28B7$4.12B8$2.96B9$2B9$2.21B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$7.01B10,11$15.9B12,13$14B14,15$12.4B16,17$11.3B16,17
Cash & equivalents$9.16B18$10.5B19$11.6B19$10.6B19$12.7B19
Diluted shares427.4M477.8M476.7M453.5M436.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom). A derived or summed figure cites every filing line it was built from.

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$602.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$41.91
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$258.23

10 shares is a claim on $602.37 of net worth that earned you $41.91 last year, against $258.23 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 10%FY23 18%FY24 23%FY25 26%

It earned an average 18% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 61% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.6.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Why: this is a bank. Banks report no capital expenditure line, so free cash flow can't be derived — and for a lender, moving cash is the business itself, so a cash-flow DCF doesn't describe it.
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Why: this is a bank. Banks report no capital expenditure line, so free cash flow can't be derived — and for a lender, moving cash is the business itself, so a cash-flow DCF doesn't describe it.
Earnings Power Value
$41.91
assumptions (8)
  • Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
  • Equity risk premium5.00%
  • Beta (β)1.00
  • Equity share of capital85.0%
  • Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
  • Tax rate21.0%
  • Normalized earnings$1.83B
  • Growth assumed0.0%
Graham Number
$72.97
assumptions (1)
  • Graham multiplier (P/E × P/B)22.5×

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

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Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K filed 2024-02-16 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000759944-24-000039 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K filed 2025-02-13 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000759944-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0000759944-26-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K filed 2024-02-16 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000759944-24-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K filed 2025-02-13 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000759944-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0000759944-26-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K filed 2024-02-16 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000759944-24-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K filed 2025-02-13 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000759944-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0000759944-26-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K filed 2023-02-17 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000759944-23-000029 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K filed 2023-02-17 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000759944-23-000029 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  12. 10-K filed 2024-02-16 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000759944-24-000039 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K filed 2024-02-16 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000759944-24-000039 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K filed 2025-02-13 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000759944-25-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K filed 2025-02-13 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000759944-25-000013 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0000759944-26-000028 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0000759944-26-000028 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  18. 10-K filed 2025-02-13 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000759944-25-000013 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 10-K filed 2026-02-12 · periods ending 2022-12-31, 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0000759944-26-000028 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)