Capitol Federal Financial, Inc.
CFFNdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on fileCapitol Federal Financial, Inc. earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.42 and $6.48 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.5M1 | $18.1M2 | $17.6M3 | $15.3M3 | $16.3M3 |
| Net income | $76.1M4 | $84.5M5 | −$101.7M6 | $38M6 | $68M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $74.5M7 | $97.3M8 | $47.5M9 | $31.2M9 | $55M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $9.41M10 | $5.56M11 | $6.28M12 | $7.18M12 | $5.2M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $65.1M7 | $91.7M8 | $41.3M9 | $24M9 | $49.8M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $42.3M13 | $49.2M14 | $245.6M15 | $217.3M16 | $252.4M16 |
| Diluted shares | 135.5M | 135.7M | 133.6M | 130.7M | 130.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $80.6 of net worth that earned you $5.23 and generated $3.83 of cash last year.
It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.42 and $6.48 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$41.3M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$41.3M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$68M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $6.48 |
| Base | 0.0% | $6.48 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $7.57 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001490906-23-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001490906-24-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001490906-25-000033 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001490906-23-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001490906-24-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001490906-25-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001490906-23-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001490906-24-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001490906-25-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001490906-23-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001490906-24-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001490906-25-000033 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001490906-22-000038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001490906-23-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001490906-24-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001490906-25-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)