MeritValue

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

CFdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. earns about 25% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 25% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $114.87 and $131.31 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.54B1$11.2B2$6.63B3$5.94B3$7.08B3
Net income$1.26B4$3.94B5$1.84B6$1.48B6$1.8B6
Operating cash flow$2.87B7$3.86B8$2.76B9$2.27B9$2.75B9
Capital expenditure$514M10$453M11$499M12$518M12$950M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.36B7$3.4B8$2.26B9$1.75B9$1.8B9
Total debt$6.93B13$5.93B14$5.94B15$5.94B16$6.43B16
Cash & equivalents$1.63B17$2.32B18$2.03B18$1.61B18$1.98B18
Diluted shares216.2M204.2M193.8M180.7M162.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$298.27
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$110.85
Free cash flow it threw off
$111.1
Debt you’d be carrying
$396.42

10 shares is a claim on $298.27 of net worth that earned you $110.85 and generated $111.1 of cash last year, against $396.42 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
25% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 49%FY23 20%FY24 17%FY25 21%

It earned about 25% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−25% shares · 5y

Share count is down 25% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $114.87 and $131.31 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$119.36
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.8B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$131.31
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.8B
Earnings Power Value
$114.87
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.8B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$77.59
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $131.31
The three cases
Bear0.0%$131.31
Base0.0%$131.31
Bull5.0%$169.73

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001324404-24-000008 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001324404-25-000006 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001324404-26-000007 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001324404-24-000008 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001324404-25-000006 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001324404-26-000007 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001324404-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001324404-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001324404-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001324404-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001324404-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001324404-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001324404-23-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001324404-24-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001324404-25-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001324404-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001324404-25-000006 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001324404-26-000007 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)