MeritValue

Certara, Inc.

CERTdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Certara, Inc. earns about 0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 7% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.03 and $12.82 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$286.1M1$335.6M2$354.3M3$385.1M3$418.8M3
Net income−$13.3M4$14.7M5−$55.4M6−$12.1M6−$1.6M6
Operating cash flow$60.4M7$92.5M8$82.8M9$80.5M9$96.3M9
Capital expenditure$1.14M10$1.43M11$1.78M12$1.63M12$1.76M12
Free cash flow (derived)$59.2M7$91.1M8$81M9$78.8M9$94.6M9
Total debt$589.5M13$586M14$582.5M15$590.9M16$586.2M16
Cash & equivalents$185.8M17$236.6M18$235M19$179.2M20$189.4M20
Diluted shares149.8M159.4M158.9M160.4M160.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$66.26
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.1
Free cash flow it threw off
$5.9
Debt you’d be carrying
$36.55

10 shares is a claim on $66.26 of net worth that earned you −$0.1 and generated $5.9 of cash last year, against $36.55 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
0% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 2%FY23 -2%FY24 -1%FY25 0%

It earned about 0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+7% shares · 5y

Share count is up 7% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.03 and $12.82 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$12.82
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth11.0%
  • fcfBase$81M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$9.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth11.0%
  • fcfBase$81M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years11.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $9.03
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.74
Base11.0%$9.03
Bull16.0%$11.59

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 11.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001827090-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001827090-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001827090-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001827090-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001827090-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001827090-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001827090-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001827090-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001827090-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001827090-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001827090-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001827090-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002605 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001827090-24-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001827090-25-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001827090-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002605 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001827090-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001827090-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001827090-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)