MeritValue

CERUS CORP

CERSdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CERUS CORP earns about -65% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 11% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.21 and $0.22 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$159.5M1$188.3M2$186.8M3$201.3M3$233.8M3
Net income−$54.4M4−$42.8M5−$37.5M6−$20.9M6−$15.6M6
Operating cash flow−$33.9M7−$25.6M8−$43.2M9$11.4M9$4.84M9
Capital expenditure$910,00010$2M11$4.6M12$2.84M12$3.73M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$34.8M7−$27.6M8−$47.8M9$8.52M9$1.11M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$48.8M13$35.6M14$11.6M15$20.3M16$20M16
Diluted shares171.3M176.5M180.3M184.6M190.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$3.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.82
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.06
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $3.37 of net worth that earned you −$0.82 and generated $0.06 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-65% avg · 5y
FY21 -108%FY22 -90%FY23 -56%FY24 -46%FY25 -27%

It earned about -65% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+11% shares · 5y

Share count is up 11% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.21 and $0.22 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.11M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.21
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.11M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.21
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.19
Base5.0%$0.21
Bull10.0%$0.23

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026195 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027906 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085678 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026195 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027906 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085678 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026195 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027906 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085678 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026195 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027906 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085678 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005558 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026195 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027906 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085678 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)