MeritValue

CENTURY ALUMINUM CO

CENXdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CENTURY ALUMINUM CO earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.38 and $3.55 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.21B1$2.78B2$2.19B3$2.22B3$2.53B3
Net income−$167.1M4−$14.1M5−$43.1M6$336.8M6$41.8M6
Operating cash flow−$64.7M7$25.9M8$105.6M9−$24.6M9$185M9
Capital expenditure$83M10$86.3M11$95M12$82.3M12$100.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$147.7M7−$60.4M8$10.6M9−$106.9M9$84.8M9
Total debt—$381.6M13$430.9M13——
Cash & equivalents$29M14$54.3M15$88.8M16$32.9M16$134.2M16
Diluted shares90.2M91.4M92.4M98.4M95.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$84.53
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.39
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.9
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $84.53 of net worth that earned you $4.39 and generated $8.9 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 -34%FY22 4%FY23 -8%FY24 46%FY25 0%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 13% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.38 and $3.55 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$3.55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$10.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$3.38
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$10.6M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$8.94
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $3.38
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3
Base5.0%$3.38
Bull10.0%$3.84

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000949157-24-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000949157-25-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013788 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000949157-24-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000949157-25-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013788 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000949157-24-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000949157-25-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013788 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000949157-24-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000949157-25-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013788 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000949157-24-000028 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000949157-23-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000949157-24-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013788 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)