MeritValue

CENTRAL GARDEN & PET CO

CENTdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CENTRAL GARDEN & PET CO earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 16% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $24.64 and $282.72 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.3B1$3.34B2$3.31B3$3.2B3$3.13B3
Net income$151.7M4$152.2M5$125.6M6$108M6$162.8M6
Operating cash flow$250.8M7−$34M8$381.6M9$394.9M9$332.5M9
Capital expenditure$80.3M10$115.2M11$54M12$43.1M12$41.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$170.5M7−$149.2M8$327.7M9$351.8M9$291.1M9
Total debt$2.37B13$2.37B14$2.38B15$2.38B16$2.38B16
Cash & equivalents$426.4M17$177.4M18$488.7M19$753.6M19$882.5M19
Diluted shares55.2M68.0M66.8M66.9M63.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$248.1
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$25.52
Free cash flow it threw off
$45.61
Debt you’d be carrying
$373.49

10 shares is a claim on $248.1 of net worth that earned you $25.52 and generated $45.61 of cash last year, against $373.49 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 6%FY23 5%FY24 5%FY25 7%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+16% shares · 5y

Share count is up 16% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $24.64 and $282.72 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$282.72
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$327.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$143.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$327.7M
Earnings Power Value
$24.64
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$151.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$37.73
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $143.89
The three cases
Bear0.0%$49.84
Base20.0%$143.89
Bull20.0%$143.89

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0000887733-23-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0000887733-24-000029 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000887733-25-000041 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0000887733-23-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0000887733-24-000029 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000887733-25-000041 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0000887733-23-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0000887733-24-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000887733-25-000041 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0000887733-23-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0000887733-24-000029 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000887733-25-000041 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0000887733-22-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0000887733-23-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000887733-24-000029 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-28 · accession 0000887733-25-000041 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0000887733-23-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0000887733-24-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000887733-25-000041 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)