MeritValue

Celsius Holdings, Inc.

CELHdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Celsius Holdings, Inc. earns about -67% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.39 and $52.29 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$314.3M1$653.6M2$1.32B3$1.36B3$2.52B3
Net income$3.94M4−$187.3M5$226.8M6$145.1M6$108M6
Operating cash flow−$96.6M7$108.2M8$141.2M9$262.9M9$359.4M9
Capital expenditure$3.15M10$8.26M11$17.4M12$23.4M12$36.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$99.7M7$99.9M8$123.8M9$239.5M9$323.4M9
Total debt———$013$1.35B13
Cash & equivalents$16.3M14$614.2M15$756M16$890.2M17$398.9M17
Diluted shares233.1M226.9M237.0M237.4M254.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$46.35
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.24
Free cash flow it threw off
$12.69
Debt you’d be carrying
$53.11

10 shares is a claim on $46.35 of net worth that earned you $4.24 and generated $12.69 of cash last year, against $53.11 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-67% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 -467%FY23 86%FY24 36%FY25 9%

It earned about -67% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.39 and $52.29 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$52.29
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$239.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$26.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$239.5M
Earnings Power Value
$4.39
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$108M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$5.11
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $26.89
The three cases
Bear0.0%$9.68
Base20.0%$26.89
Bull20.0%$26.89

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001341766-24-000015 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001341766-25-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001341766-26-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001341766-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001341766-25-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001341766-26-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001341766-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001341766-25-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001341766-26-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001341766-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001341766-25-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001341766-26-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001341766-26-000024 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001829126-23-002816 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001341766-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001341766-25-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001341766-26-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)