MeritValue

Constellation Energy Corp

CEGdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Constellation Energy Corp earns about 6% on invested capital. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $53.56 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$17.3B1$21.6B2$20.8B3$19B3$22.7B3
Net income−$205M4−$160M5$1.62B6$3.75B6$2.32B6
Operating cash flow−$1.34B7−$2.35B8−$5.3B9−$2.46B9$4.24B9
Capital expenditure$1.33B10$1.69B11$2.42B12$2.57B12$2.95B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$2.67B7−$4.04B8−$7.72B9−$5.03B9$1.29B9
Total debt$7.88B13$10.4B14$16.9B15$16.9B16$16.4B16
Cash & equivalents$504M17$422M18$368M19$3.02B19$3.64B19
Diluted shares0329.0M324.0M315.0M314.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$462.32
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$73.85
Free cash flow it threw off
$41.02
Debt you’d be carrying
$522.13

10 shares is a claim on $462.32 of net worth that earned you $73.85 and generated $41.02 of cash last year, against $522.13 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 -1%FY23 7%FY24 14%FY25 9%

It earned an average 6% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 5y

Total debt has risen 108% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$53.56
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.62B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$87.74
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001868275-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001868275-25-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001868275-26-000032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001868275-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001868275-25-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001868275-26-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001868275-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001868275-25-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001868275-26-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001868275-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001868275-25-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001868275-26-000032 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001868275-23-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001868275-24-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001868275-25-000023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001868275-26-000032 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001868275-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001868275-25-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001868275-26-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)