MeritValue

CECO ENVIRONMENTAL CORP

CECOdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CECO ENVIRONMENTAL CORP earns about 5% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $3.67 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$324.1M1$422.6M2$544.8M3$557.9M3$774.4M3
Net income$1.43M4$17.4M5$12.9M6$13M6$50.1M6
Operating cash flow$13.3M7$29.6M8$44.6M9$24.8M9$5.86M9
Capital expenditure$2.62M10$3.38M11$8.38M12$17.4M12$11.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$10.7M7$26.3M8$36.3M9$7.46M9−$5.48M9
Total debt$127.6M13$222.4M14$274.6M15$437.8M16$424.9M16
Cash & equivalents$29.9M17$45.5M18$54.8M19$37.8M20$33.1M20
Diluted shares35.6M35.0M35.3M36.4M36.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$86.75
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$13.67
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.5
Debt you’d be carrying
$116.07

10 shares is a claim on $86.75 of net worth that earned you $13.67 and generated −$1.5 of cash last year, against $116.07 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 6%FY23 5%FY24 4%FY25 9%

It earned an average 5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 233% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$7.46M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$7.46M
Earnings Power Value
$3.67
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$13M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$16.35
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025511 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026562 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085815 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025511 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026562 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085815 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025511 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026562 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085815 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025511 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026562 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085815 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006169 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025511 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026562 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085815 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006169 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025511 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026562 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085815 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)