MeritValue

Celanese Corp

CEdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Celanese Corp earns about 8% on invested capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $178.81 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$8.54B1$9.67B2$10.9B3$10.3B3$9.54B3
Net income$1.89B4$1.89B5$1.94B6−$1.54B6−$1.17B6
Operating cash flow$1.76B7$1.82B8$1.9B9$966M9$1.15B9
Capital expenditure$467M10$543M11$568M12$435M12$343M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.29B7$1.28B8$1.33B9$531M9$803M9
Total debt$4.51B13$15.3B14$14.8B15$14B16$13.8B16
Cash & equivalents$536M17$1.51B17$1.81B18$962M18$1.26B18
Diluted shares112.1M109.2M109.4M109.3M109.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$369.67
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$106.36
Free cash flow it threw off
$73.31
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,261.57

10 shares is a claim on $369.67 of net worth that earned you −$106.36 and generated $73.31 of cash last year, against $1,261.57 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 24%FY22 9%FY23 9%FY24 -1%FY25 -2%

It earned an average 8% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 206% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$803M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$803M
Earnings Power Value
$178.81
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.89B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001306830-24-000029 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001306830-25-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001306830-26-000031 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001306830-24-000029 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001306830-25-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001306830-26-000031 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001306830-24-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001306830-25-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001306830-26-000031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001306830-24-000029 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001306830-25-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001306830-26-000031 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001306830-23-000023 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001306830-24-000029 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001306830-25-000027 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001306830-26-000031 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001306830-23-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001306830-26-000031 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)