MeritValue

CADIZ INC

CDZIdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CADIZ INC earns about -13% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 91% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$564,0001$1.5M2$1.99M3$9.61M4$16.3M4
Net income−$31.2M5−$24.8M6−$31.4M7−$31.1M8−$34.2M8
Operating cash flow−$15.3M9−$18.6M10−$20.9M11−$21.5M12−$18.9M12
Capital expenditure$22.9M13$3.38M14$5.79M15$934,00016$7.58M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$38.2M9−$22M10−$26.7M11−$22.5M12−$26.5M12
Total debt$96.8M17$99.4M18$76.3M19$117.5M20$151.1M20
Cash & equivalents$11M21$10M22$4.5M23$17.3M24$8.6M24
Diluted shares43.7M55.8M66.7M75.4M83.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2.79
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.1
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3.19
Debt you’d be carrying
$18.15

10 shares is a claim on $2.79 of net worth that earned you −$4.1 and generated −$3.19 of cash last year, against $18.15 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-13% avg · 5y
FY21 -12%FY22 -11%FY23 -19%FY24 -14%FY25 -12%

It earned an average -13% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+91% shares · 5y

Share count is up 91% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 56% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008639 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009847 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009714 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010517 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008639 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009847 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009714 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010517 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008639 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009847 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009714 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010517 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008639 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009847 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009714 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010517 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008639 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009847 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009714 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010517 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008639 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009847 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009714 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010517 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)