MeritValue

CODEXIS, INC.

CDXSdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CODEXIS, INC. earns about -99% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 35% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$104.8M1$138.6M2$70.1M3$59.3M3$70.4M3
Net income−$21.3M4−$33.6M5−$76.2M6−$65.3M6−$44M6
Operating cash flow−$14.3M7$11.3M8−$52.6M9−$49.4M9−$19.4M9
Capital expenditure$13.8M10$8.31M11$4.42M12$4.31M12$4.47M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$28.1M7$2.98M8−$57.1M9−$53.7M9−$23.8M9
Total debt——$013$57.8M14$80.2M14
Cash & equivalents$116.8M15$114M16$65.1M17$19.3M17$50.8M17
Diluted shares64.6M65.3M68.1M73.4M87.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$5.8
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.05
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.74
Debt you’d be carrying
$9.2

10 shares is a claim on $5.8 of net worth that earned you −$5.05 and generated −$2.74 of cash last year, against $9.2 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-99% avg · 5y
FY21 -35%FY22 -85%FY23 -280%FY24 -49%FY25 -43%

It earned an average -99% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+35% shares · 5y

Share count is up 35% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001200375-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001200375-25-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001200375-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001200375-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001200375-25-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001200375-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001200375-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001200375-25-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001200375-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001200375-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001200375-25-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001200375-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001200375-25-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001200375-26-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001200375-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001200375-25-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001200375-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)