MeritValue

CDW Corp

CDWdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CDW Corp earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $77.55 and $86.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$20.8B1$23.7B2$21.4B3$21B3$22.4B3
Net income$988.6M4$1.11B5$1.1B6$1.08B6$1.07B6
Operating cash flow$784.6M7$1.34B8$1.6B9$1.28B9$1.21B9
Capital expenditure$100M10$127.8M11$148.2M12$122.6M12$117.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$684.6M7$1.21B8$1.45B9$1.15B9$1.09B9
Total debt$6.86B13$5.92B14$5.64B15$5.84B16$5.63B16
Cash & equivalents$258.1M17$315.2M18$588.7M19$503.5M20$618.7M20
Diluted shares140.5M137.0M136.3M135.2M132.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$197.28
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$80.74
Free cash flow it threw off
$82.37
Debt you’d be carrying
$426.18

10 shares is a claim on $197.28 of net worth that earned you $80.74 and generated $82.37 of cash last year, against $426.18 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 13%FY23 13%FY24 14%FY25 14%

It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 18% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $77.55 and $86.96 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$77.55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.15B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$86.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.15B
Earnings Power Value
$84.55
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.08B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$59.89
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $86.96
The three cases
Bear0.0%$86.96
Base0.0%$86.96
Bull5.0%$117.19

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001402057-24-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001402057-25-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001402057-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001402057-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001402057-25-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001402057-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001402057-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001402057-25-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001402057-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001402057-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001402057-25-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001402057-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001402057-23-000052 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001402057-24-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001402057-25-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001402057-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001402057-23-000052 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001402057-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001402057-25-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001402057-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)