MeritValue

Cadre Holdings, Inc.

CDREdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Cadre Holdings, Inc. earns about 9% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 52% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.62 and $37.49 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$427.3M1$457.8M2$482.5M3$567.6M3$610.3M3
Net income$12.7M4$5.82M5$38.6M6$36.1M6$44.1M6
Operating cash flow$40.1M7$46.4M8$73.2M9$31.8M9$63.7M9
Capital expenditure$2.83M10$4.49M11$6.73M12$5.67M12$6.86M12
Free cash flow (derived)$37.3M7$41.9M8$66.5M9$26.1M9$56.8M9
Total debt$172.9M13$164.1M14$154.6M15$234.6M16$323.5M16
Cash & equivalents$33.9M17$45.3M18$87.7M18$124.9M19$122.9M19
Diluted shares28.6M36.1M37.9M40.3M43.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$73.17
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.16
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.09
Debt you’d be carrying
$74.49

10 shares is a claim on $73.17 of net worth that earned you $10.16 and generated $13.09 of cash last year, against $74.49 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 3%FY23 16%FY24 9%FY25 9%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+52% shares · 5y

Share count is up 52% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 87% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.62 and $37.49 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$37.49
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth11.8%
  • fcfBase$56.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$26.18
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth11.8%
  • fcfBase$56.8M
Earnings Power Value
$8.62
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$36.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$12.96
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years11.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $26.18
The three cases
Bear0.0%$14.08
Base11.8%$26.18
Bull16.8%$33.01

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 11.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002995 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002711 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025862 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002995 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002711 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025862 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002995 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002711 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025862 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002995 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002711 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025862 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003915 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002995 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002711 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025862 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002711 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025862 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025862 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)