MeritValue

COPT DEFENSE PROPERTIES

CDPdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

COPT DEFENSE PROPERTIES earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $13.16 and $47.83 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$107.9M1$154.6M2$60.2M3$75.6M3$42.1M3
Net income$81.6M4$178.8M5−$74.3M6$143.9M6$159.5M6
Operating cash flow$249.1M7$265.8M8$276.3M9$331M9$309.9M9
Capital expenditure$30M10$36.4M11$20.5M12$31.3M12$21.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$219.1M7$229.4M8$255.8M9$299.6M9$288.9M9
Total debt$2.27B13$2.23B14$2.42B15$2.39B16$2.77B16
Cash & equivalents$13.3M17$12.3M18$167.8M18$38.3M18$275M18
Diluted shares112.4M112.6M112.2M112.9M113.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$133.69
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$14.08
Free cash flow it threw off
$25.49
Debt you’d be carrying
$244.28

10 shares is a claim on $133.69 of net worth that earned you $14.08 and generated $25.49 of cash last year, against $244.28 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 5%FY23 -0%FY24 4%FY25 4%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 22% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $13.16 and $47.83 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$47.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth9.6%
  • fcfBase$288.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$32.99
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth9.6%
  • fcfBase$288.9M
Earnings Power Value
$13.16
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$143.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.08
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years9.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $32.99
The three cases
Bear0.0%$14.42
Base9.6%$32.99
Bull14.6%$45.38

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 9.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000860546-24-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000860546-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000860546-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000860546-24-000013 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000860546-25-000008 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000860546-26-000011 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000860546-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000860546-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000860546-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000860546-24-000013 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000860546-25-000008 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000860546-26-000011 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000860546-23-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000860546-24-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000860546-25-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000860546-26-000011 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000860546-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000860546-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)