MeritValue

CareDx, Inc.

CDNAdata completeness 75%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CareDx, Inc. earns about -22% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$296.4M1$321.8M2$280.3M3$333.8M3$379.8M3
Net income−$30.7M4−$76.6M5−$190.3M6$52.5M6−$21.4M6
Operating cash flow−$19.3M7−$25.2M8−$18.4M9$38M9$42M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$348.5M10$89.9M11$82.2M12$114.7M12$65.4M12
Diluted shares52.2M53.3M53.8M56.6M53.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$56.88
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.01
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $56.88 of net worth that earned you −$4.01 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-22% avg · 5y
FY21 -22%FY22 -18%FY23 -84%FY24 20%FY25 -7%

It earned an average -22% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001217234-24-000033 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001217234-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001217234-26-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001217234-24-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001217234-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001217234-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001217234-24-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001217234-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001217234-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001217234-24-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001217234-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001217234-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)