MeritValue

Cardlytics, Inc.

CDLXdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Cardlytics, Inc. earns about -96% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 65% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$258.8M1$277.2M2$285.4M3$255.6M3$212.3M3
Net income−$128.6M4−$465.3M5−$134.7M6−$189.3M6−$103.5M6
Operating cash flow−$38.5M7−$53.9M8−$185,0009−$8.82M9$9.29M9
Capital expenditure$3.11M10$1.17M11$667,00012$1.56M12$480,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$41.6M7−$55.1M8−$852,0009−$10.4M9$8.81M9
Total debt$184.4M13$226M13$014$264.4M15$212.6M16
Cash & equivalents$233.5M17$121.9M18$91.8M19$65.6M19$48.7M19
Diluted shares32.2M33.4M36.5M48.4M53.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$1.23
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$19.48
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.66
Debt you’d be carrying
$40.02

10 shares is a claim on −$1.23 of net worth that earned you −$19.48 and generated $1.66 of cash last year, against $40.02 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-96% avg · 5y
FY21 -15%FY22 -116%FY23 -241%FY24 -56%FY25 -52%

It earned an average -96% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+65% shares · 5y

Share count is up 65% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 15% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001666071-24-000037 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001666071-25-000034 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001666071-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001666071-24-000037 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001666071-25-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001666071-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001666071-24-000037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001666071-25-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001666071-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001666071-24-000037 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001666071-25-000034 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001666071-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001666071-23-000032 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001666071-25-000034 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001666071-25-000034 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001666071-26-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001666071-24-000037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001666071-25-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001666071-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)