The thesis, from the filings
The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.51 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
i. The business — what you’d actually own
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | $894,0001 | $1.56M2 | −$1.31M3 | −$559,0003 |
| Operating cash flow | $1.13M4 | $2.25M5 | −$415,0006 | −$130,0006 |
| Capital expenditure | — | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow (derived) | — | — | — | — |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $243,0007 | $78,0008 | $8,0009 | $51,0009 |
| Diluted shares | — | — | — | 3.2M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$9.22
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.74
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—
10 shares is a claim on −$9.22 of net worth that earned you −$1.74 last year.
iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 4y
Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 4y
Share count is roughly flat over 4 years — little dilution, little buyback.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
$0.51
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate5.3%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$167,500
- growthAssumed0.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
Sources — the receipts
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-096274 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-004835 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-035259 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-096274 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-004835 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-035259 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-096274 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-004835 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-035259 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)