Century Communities, Inc.
CCSdata completeness 88%13 fiscal years on fileCentury Communities, Inc. earns about 21% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 12% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $41.35 and $113.94 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.22B1 | $4.51B2 | $3.69B3 | $4.4B3 | $4.12B3 |
| Net income | $498.5M4 | $525.1M5 | $259.2M6 | $333.8M6 | $147.6M6 |
| Operating cash flow | −$201.2M7 | $315.3M8 | $41.6M9 | $125.7M9 | $153.1M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $8.91M10 | $20.4M11 | $43.3M12 | $39M12 | $28.8M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$210.1M7 | $294.9M8 | −$1.69M9 | $86.7M9 | $124.3M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $316.3M13 | $296.7M14 | $226.2M15 | $150M15 | $109.4M15 |
| Diluted shares | 34.4M | 33.0M | 32.2M | 32.1M | 30.4M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $853.67 of net worth that earned you $48.62 and generated $40.95 of cash last year.
It earned about 21% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 12% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $41.35 and $113.94 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$86.7M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$86.7M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$333.8M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $44.42 |
| Base | 0.0% | $44.42 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $54.3 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001576940-24-000005 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001576940-25-000006 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001576940-26-000005 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001576940-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001576940-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001576940-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001576940-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001576940-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001576940-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001576940-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001576940-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001576940-26-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001576940-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001576940-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001576940-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)