MeritValue

Carnival Corp Ltd.

CCLdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Carnival Corp Ltd. earns about -2% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 25% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.91B1$12.2B2$21.6B3$25B3$26.6B3
Net income−$9.5B4−$6.09B5−$74M6$1.92B6$2.76B6
Operating cash flow−$4.11B7−$1.67B8$4.28B9$5.92B9$6.22B9
Capital expenditure$3.61B10$4.94B11$3.28B12$4.63B12$3.61B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$7.72B7−$6.61B8$997M9$1.3B9$2.61B9
Total debt$33.2B13$70.2B14$61.9B15$55.7B16$54B16
Cash & equivalents$8.94B17$4.03B18$2.42B19$1.21B19$1.93B19
Diluted shares1.12B1.18B1.26B1.40B1.40B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$87.62
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$19.69
Free cash flow it threw off
$18.59
Debt you’d be carrying
$385.33

10 shares is a claim on $87.62 of net worth that earned you $19.69 and generated $18.59 of cash last year, against $385.33 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-2% avg · 5y
FY21 -17%FY22 -5%FY23 2%FY24 3%FY25 4%

It earned an average -2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+25% shares · 5y

Share count is up 25% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 63% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.3B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.3B
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$19.96
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0000815097-24-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0000815097-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0000815097-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0000815097-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0000815097-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0000815097-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0000815097-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0000815097-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0000815097-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0000815097-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0000815097-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0000815097-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0000815097-23-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0000815097-24-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0000815097-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-30 · accession 0000815097-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0000815097-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0000815097-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0000815097-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)