MeritValue

CROWN HOLDINGS, INC.

CCKdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CROWN HOLDINGS, INC. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 11% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $40.29 and $310.83 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$11.4B1$12.9B2$12B3$11.8B3$12.4B3
Net income−$560M4$727M5$450M6$424M6$738M6
Operating cash flow$905M7$803M8$1.45B9$1.19B9$1.53B9
Capital expenditure$816M10$839M11$793M12$403M12$413M12
Free cash flow (derived)$89M7−$36M8$660M9$789M9$1.12B9
Total debt$12.4B13$13.9B14$14.9B15$12.3B16$11.8B16
Cash & equivalents$531M17$550M18$1.31B19$918M20$764M20
Diluted shares130.4M121.4M119.7M119.4M115.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$259.12
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$63.76
Free cash flow it threw off
$96.51
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,023.41

10 shares is a claim on $259.12 of net worth that earned you $63.76 and generated $96.51 of cash last year, against $1,023.41 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 -1%FY22 7%FY23 6%FY24 6%FY25 6%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−11% shares · 5y

Share count is down 11% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $40.29 and $310.83 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$310.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$789M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$126.52
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$789M
Earnings Power Value
$40.29
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$450M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$60.99
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $126.52
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.66
Base20.0%$126.52
Bull20.0%$126.52

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001219601-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001219601-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012904 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001219601-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001219601-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012904 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001219601-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001219601-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012904 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001219601-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001219601-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012904 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001219601-23-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001219601-24-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001219601-25-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012904 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001219601-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001219601-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001219601-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012904 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)