MeritValue

COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS plc

CCEPdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS plc earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between €34.8 and €117.13 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue€13.8B1€17.3B2€18.3B3€20.4B3€20.9B3
Net income€982M4€1.51B5€1.67B6€1.42B6€1.94B6
Operating cash flow€2.12B7€2.93B8€2.81B9€3.06B9€2.95B9
Capital expenditure€349M10€500M11€672M12€791M12€750M12
Free cash flow (derived)€1.77B7€2.43B8€2.13B9€2.27B9€2.2B9
Total debt€13.1B13€11.9B14€11.4B14——
Cash & equivalents€1.41B15€1.39B16€1.42B16€1.56B16€918M16
Diluted shares456.2M457.1M459.2M460.9M449.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
€174.47
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
€43.24
Free cash flow it threw off
€49.06
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on €174.47 of net worth that earned you €43.24 and generated €49.06 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 9%FY23 10%FY24 23%FY25 32%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 13% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between €34.8 and €117.13 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
€117.13
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth7.6%
  • fcfBase€2.2B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
€99.24
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth7.6%
  • fcfBase€2.2B
Earnings Power Value
€34.8
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings€1.51B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
€40.89
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years7.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth €99.24
The three cases
Bear0.0%€72.13
Base7.6%€99.24
Bull12.6%€121.47

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 7.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001650107-24-000025 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001650107-25-000039 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001650107-26-000029 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001650107-24-000025 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001650107-25-000039 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001650107-26-000029 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001650107-24-000025 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001650107-25-000039 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001650107-26-000029 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001650107-24-000025 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001650107-25-000039 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001650107-26-000029 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001650107-23-000019 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001650107-24-000025 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001650107-25-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001650107-26-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalents)