MeritValue

CBIZ, Inc.

CBZdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CBIZ, Inc. earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 18% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.44 and $17.26 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.1B1$1.41B2$1.59B3$1.81B3$2.76B3
Net income$70.9M4$105.4M5$121M6$41M6$115.4M6
Operating cash flow$131.2M7$126.1M8$153.5M9$123.7M9$192.5M9
Capital expenditure$8.98M10$8.64M11$23.1M12$12.9M12$17M12
Free cash flow (derived)$122.2M7$117.5M8$130.5M9$110.8M9$175.5M9
Total debt$154.9M13$263.7M14$310.8M15$1.4B16$1.46B16
Cash & equivalents$2M17$4.7M18$8.09M19$13.8M19$18.3M19
Diluted shares53.7M52.4M50.6M52.7M63.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$278.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$18.25
Free cash flow it threw off
$27.76
Debt you’d be carrying
$230.22

10 shares is a claim on $278.63 of net worth that earned you $18.25 and generated $27.76 of cash last year, against $230.22 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 11%FY23 12%FY24 2%FY25 6%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+18% shares · 5y

Share count is up 18% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 840% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.44 and $17.26 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$9.44
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth2.2%
  • fcfBase$130.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$9.73
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth2.2%
  • fcfBase$130.5M
Earnings Power Value
$17.26
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$105.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$33.87
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years2.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $9.73
The three cases
Bear0.0%$6.74
Base2.2%$9.73
Bull7.2%$17.47

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 2.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006641 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008893 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000944148-26-000038 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006641 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008893 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000944148-26-000038 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006641 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008893 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000944148-26-000038 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006641 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008893 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000944148-26-000038 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005024 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006641 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008893 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000944148-26-000038 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006641 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008893 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000944148-26-000038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)