MeritValue

COMMUNITY FINANCIAL SYSTEM, INC.

CBUdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

COMMUNITY FINANCIAL SYSTEM, INC. earns about 30% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $36.9 and $89.02 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$387.4M1$679.4M2$652.1M3$746.3M2$818M3
Net income$189.7M4$188.1M5$131.9M6$182.5M6$210.5M6
Operating cash flow$202.5M7$214.6M8$228.4M9$242.3M9$301.9M9
Capital expenditure$13.4M10$12.9M11$18.6M12$20.7M12$68.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$189.2M7$201.7M8$209.8M9$221.6M9$233.3M9
Total debt———$990.2M13—
Cash & equivalents$1.88B14$209.9M15$191M16$197M17$301.8M17
Diluted shares54.4M54.2M53.7M52.9M52.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$379.78
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$39.84
Free cash flow it threw off
$44.17
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $379.78 of net worth that earned you $39.84 and generated $44.17 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
30% avg · 5y
FY21 89%FY22 15%FY23 14%FY24 13%FY25 21%

It earned about 30% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $36.9 and $89.02 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$89.02
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.4%
  • fcfBase$221.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$81.47
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.4%
  • fcfBase$221.6M
Earnings Power Value
$36.9
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$188.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$58.24
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $81.47
The three cases
Bear0.0%$65.65
Base5.4%$81.47
Bull10.4%$99.08

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000095 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000247 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021651 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000095 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000247 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021651 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000095 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000247 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021651 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000095 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000247 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021651 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000247 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000196 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000095 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000247 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021651 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)