MeritValue

CABOT CORP

CBTdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CABOT CORP earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $63.29 and $394.02 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.41B1$4.32B2$3.93B3$3.99B3$3.71B3
Net income$250M4$209M5$445M6$380M6$331M6
Operating cash flow$257M7$100M8$595M9$692M9$665M9
Capital expenditure$195M10$211M11$244M12$241M12$274M12
Free cash flow (derived)$62M7−$111M8$351M9$451M9$391M9
Total debt$2.22B13$2.52B14$2.36B15$2.22B16$2.22B16
Cash & equivalents$168M17$206M17$238M18$223M19$258M19
Diluted shares56.8M56.9M56.5M55.7M54.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$285.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$61.07
Free cash flow it threw off
$72.14
Debt you’d be carrying
$409.96

10 shares is a claim on $285.98 of net worth that earned you $61.07 and generated $72.14 of cash last year, against $409.96 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 8%FY23 16%FY24 14%FY25 12%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $63.29 and $394.02 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$394.02
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$391M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$198.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$391M
Earnings Power Value
$63.29
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$331M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$62.24
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $198.97
The three cases
Bear0.0%$66.84
Base20.0%$198.97
Bull20.0%$198.97

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-065844 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-129210 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-292412 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-065844 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-129210 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-292412 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-065844 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-129210 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-292412 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-065844 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-129210 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-292412 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001564590-22-038228 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-065844 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-129210 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-292412 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-065844 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-129210 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-292412 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)