COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/
CBSHdata completeness 75%18 fiscal years on fileThe thesis, from the filings
COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ earns about 310% on invested capital. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
i. The business — what you’d actually own
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $848.3M1 | $999M2 | $1.38B3 | $1.47B3 | $1.48B3 |
| Net income | $530.8M4 | $488.4M5 | $477.1M6 | $526.3M6 | $566.3M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $597.7M7 | $559.4M8 | $488.8M9 | $577.9M9 | $645.1M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $56.7M10 | $65.2M11 | $88.1M12 | $46.1M12 | $52.7M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $541M7 | $494.2M8 | $400.7M9 | $531.7M9 | $592.4M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $4.3B13 | $897.8M14 | $2.69B14 | $3.38B14 | $3.55B14 |
| Diluted shares | — | — | — | — | — |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
310% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 35%FY23 306%FY24 —FY25 590%
It earned an average 310% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 5y
Not enough history to read capital allocation.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
no diluted share count — cannot compute per-share value
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
no diluted share count — cannot compute per-share value
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
no diluted share count
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
Sources — the receipts
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000022356-24-000013 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000022356-25-000016 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000022356-26-000069 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000022356-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000022356-25-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000022356-26-000069 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000022356-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000022356-25-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000022356-26-000069 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000022356-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000022356-25-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000022356-26-000069 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000022356-25-000016 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000022356-26-000069 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)