MeritValue

CRACKER BARREL OLD COUNTRY STORE, INC

CBRLdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CRACKER BARREL OLD COUNTRY STORE, INC earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.34 and $45.69 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.82B1$3.27B2$3.44B3$3.47B3$3.48B3
Net income$254.5M4$131.9M5$99.1M6$40.9M6$46.4M6
Operating cash flow$301.9M7$205.3M8$250.5M9$169M9$218.9M9
Capital expenditure$71.4M10$98.3M11$127M12$128.3M12$159.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$230.5M7$106.9M8$123.5M9$40.7M9$59.8M9
Total debt$327.4M13$423.4M14$415M15$476.7M16$484.6M16
Cash & equivalents$144.6M17$45.1M18$25.1M19$12M20$39.6M20
Diluted shares23.8M23.2M22.3M22.3M22.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$205.52
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$20.65
Free cash flow it threw off
$26.6
Debt you’d be carrying
$215.74

10 shares is a claim on $205.52 of net worth that earned you $20.65 and generated $26.6 of cash last year, against $215.74 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 11%FY24 3%FY25 4%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 48% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.34 and $45.69 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$15.34
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$59.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$18.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$59.8M
Earnings Power Value
$45.69
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$99.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$30.86
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $18.2
The three cases
Bear0.0%$18.2
Base0.0%$18.2
Bull5.0%$27.4

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-30 · accession 0001140361-23-045201 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-29 · accession 0001558370-24-013061 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-28 · accession 0001104659-25-093663 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-30 · accession 0001140361-23-045201 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-29 · accession 0001558370-24-013061 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-28 · accession 0001104659-25-093663 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-30 · accession 0001140361-23-045201 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-29 · accession 0001558370-24-013061 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-28 · accession 0001104659-25-093663 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-30 · accession 0001140361-23-045201 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-29 · accession 0001558370-24-013061 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-28 · accession 0001104659-25-093663 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-30 · accession 0001140361-22-034827 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-29 · accession 0001140361-23-045201 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-28 · accession 0001558370-24-013061 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-08-02 · accession 0001104659-25-093663 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-30 · accession 0001140361-22-034827 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-29 · accession 0001140361-23-045201 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-28 · accession 0001558370-24-013061 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-08-02 · accession 0001104659-25-093663 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)