MeritValue

CBRE GROUP, INC.

CBREdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CBRE GROUP, INC. earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 11% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $33.38 and $39.87 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$27B1$30.2B2$31.5B3$35.2B3$39.9B3
Net income$1.84B4$1.41B5$986M6$968M6$1.16B6
Operating cash flow$2.36B7$1.63B8$480M9$1.71B9$1.56B9
Capital expenditure$209.9M10$260.1M10$305M11$307M11$366M11
Free cash flow (derived)$2.15B7$1.37B8$175M9$1.4B9$1.19B9
Total debt$2.85B12$2.18B13$3.5B14$4.19B15$7.59B15
Cash & equivalents$2.43B16$1.32B17$1.27B18$1.11B19$1.86B19
Diluted shares339.7M327.7M312.6M308.0M300.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$295.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$38.47
Free cash flow it threw off
$39.67
Debt you’d be carrying
$252.23

10 shares is a claim on $295.19 of net worth that earned you $38.47 and generated $39.67 of cash last year, against $252.23 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 20%FY22 16%FY23 9%FY24 9%FY25 9%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−11% shares · 5y

Share count is down 11% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 166% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $33.38 and $39.87 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$33.38
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.19B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$37.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.19B
Earnings Power Value
$39.87
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.16B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$50.57
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $37.65
The three cases
Bear0.0%$37.65
Base0.0%$37.65
Bull5.0%$51.37

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001138118-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001138118-25-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001138118-26-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001138118-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001138118-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001138118-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001138118-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001138118-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001138118-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001138118-23-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001138118-26-000005 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001138118-23-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001138118-24-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001138118-25-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001138118-26-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001138118-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001138118-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001138118-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001138118-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)