MeritValue

Cboe Global Markets, Inc.

CBOEdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Cboe Global Markets, Inc. earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $75.07 and $583.63 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.49B1$3.96B2$3.77B3$4.09B3$4.71B3
Net income$529M4$235M5$761.4M6$764.9M6$1.1B6
Operating cash flow$596.8M7$651.1M8$1.08B9$1.1B9$1.75B9
Capital expenditure$51M10$59.8M11$45M12$60.9M12$71M12
Free cash flow (derived)$545.8M7$591.3M8$1.03B9$1.04B9$1.68B9
Total debt$2.6B13$3.48B14$2.88B15$2.88B16$2.89B16
Cash & equivalents$341.9M17$432.7M17$543.2M18$920.3M19$2.22B19
Diluted shares107.2M106.7M106.2M105.5M105.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$488.9
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$104.66
Free cash flow it threw off
$160
Debt you’d be carrying
$274.58

10 shares is a claim on $488.9 of net worth that earned you $104.66 and generated $160 of cash last year, against $274.58 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 4%FY23 13%FY24 13%FY25 20%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 11% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $75.07 and $583.63 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$583.63
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.04B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$316.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.04B
Earnings Power Value
$75.07
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$761.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$107.06
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $316.16
The three cases
Bear0.0%$134.97
Base20.0%$316.16
Bull20.0%$316.16

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001277 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006984 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-001386 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006984 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001277 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006984 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001277 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006984 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001489 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001277 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006984 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001277 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006984 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)