CHAIN BRIDGE BANCORP INC
CBNAdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on fileCHAIN BRIDGE BANCORP INC earns about 12% on equity, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 44% over 3 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $31.96 and $126.2 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $31.8M1 | $48.1M2 | $55.8M2 |
| Net income | $8.83M3 | $20.9M4 | $20.2M4 |
| Operating cash flow | $12.8M5 | $21.8M6 | $15.6M6 |
| Capital expenditure | $269,0007 | $223,0008 | $4.11M8 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $12.5M5 | $21.6M6 | $11.5M6 |
| Total debt | $5M9 | $010 | $010 |
| Cash & equivalents | $316.8M11 | $410.7M12 | $586.6M12 |
| Diluted shares | 4.6M | 5.0M | 6.6M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $257.88 of net worth that earned you $30.84 and generated $17.5 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.
It earned about 12% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 44% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $31.96 and $126.2 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$12.5M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$12.5M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$20.2M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $116.71 |
| Base | 5.0% | $123.32 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $131.23 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001392272-25-000019 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-020177 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001392272-25-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-020177 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001392272-25-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-020177 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001392272-25-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-020177 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001392272-25-000019 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-020177 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001392272-25-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-020177 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)