MeritValue

CBL & ASSOCIATES PROPERTIES INC

CBLdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CBL & ASSOCIATES PROPERTIES INC earns about -5% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 16108% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.2 and $34.53 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$18.5M1$17.9M2$18.9M3$18.6M3$16.2M3
Net income−$295.1M4−$93.5M5$6.55M6$59M6$136M6
Operating cash flow$133.4M7$208.2M8$183.5M9$202.2M9$249.7M9
Capital expenditure$42.1M10$42.9M11$42.3M11——
Free cash flow (derived)$91.3M7$165.3M8$141.3M9——
Total debt$1.18B12$2B13$1.89B14$2.21B15$2.17B16
Cash & equivalents$61.8M17$44.7M18$34.2M19$40.8M19$42.3M19
Diluted shares190,27730.0M31.3M31.0M30.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$121.57
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$44.09
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$704.59

10 shares is a claim on $121.57 of net worth that earned you $44.09 last year, against $704.59 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-5% avg · 5y
FY20 -55%FY22 -25%FY23 2%FY24 18%FY25 36%

It earned about -5% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+16108% shares · 5y

Share count is up 16108% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 83% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.2 and $34.53 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$34.53
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth7.1%
  • fcfBase$141.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$19.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth7.1%
  • fcfBase$141.3M
Earnings Power Value
$2.2
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.55M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$34.45
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years7.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $19.86
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$3.65
Base7.1%$19.86
Bull12.1%$40.27

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 7.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005470 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030677 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-087049 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005470 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030677 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-087049 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005470 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030677 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-087049 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005470 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023267 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001564590-22-013053 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023267 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030677 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-087049 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-087049 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005470 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030677 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-087049 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)