MeritValue

Commercial Bancgroup, Inc.

CBKdata completeness 100%2 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Commercial Bancgroup, Inc. earns about 43% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 2 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$123.2M1$121.6M1
Net income$31.4M2$37.2M2
Operating cash flow$38.7M3$37.1M3
Capital expenditure$3.04M4$1.87M4
Free cash flow (derived)$35.6M3$35.2M3
Total debt$109.2M5$245.4M5
Cash & equivalents$178.2M6$144.3M6
Diluted shares12.2M12.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$226.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$29.51
Free cash flow it threw off
$27.95
Debt you’d be carrying
$194.7

10 shares is a claim on $226.37 of net worth that earned you $29.51 and generated $27.95 of cash last year, against $194.7 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
43% avg · 2y
FY24 61%FY25 26%

It earned an average 43% on invested capital over 2 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 2y

Share count is up 3% over 2 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 125% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
only 2 years of net income (need ≥3)
Graham Number
$38.76
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-033659 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-033659 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-033659 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-033659 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-033659 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-033659 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)