MeritValue

Chubb Ltd

CBdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Chubb Ltd earns about 12% on invested capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $233 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$40.9B1$43.1B2$49.7B3$55.8B3$59.4B3
Net income$8.53B4$5.25B5$9.03B6$9.27B6$10.3B6
Operating cash flow$11.2B7$11.3B8$12.6B9$16.2B9$12.8B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$16.2B10$14.9B11$14.5B12$15.2B13$17.2B13
Cash & equivalents$1.66B14$2.01B14$2.62B15$2.55B15$2.47B15
Diluted shares443.2M423.5M414.2M408.5M401.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,836.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$256.78
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$429.05

10 shares is a claim on $1,836.98 of net worth that earned you $256.78 last year, against $429.05 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 9%FY23 14%FY24 13%FY25 13%

It earned an average 12% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$233
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$9.03B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$325.79
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000896159-24-000003 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000896159-25-000004 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000896159-26-000005 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000896159-24-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000896159-25-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000896159-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000896159-24-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000896159-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000896159-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000896159-23-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000896159-24-000003 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000896159-25-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000896159-26-000005 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000896159-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000896159-26-000005 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)