MeritValue

CATERPILLAR INC

CATdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

CATERPILLAR INC earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 14% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $193.08 and $1,025.22 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$51B1$59.4B2$67.1B3$64.8B3$67.6B3
Net income$6.49B4$6.7B5$10.3B6$10.8B6$8.88B6
Operating cash flow$7.2B7$7.77B8$12.9B9$12B9$11.7B9
Capital expenditure$1.09B10$1.3B11$1.6B12$1.99B12$2.82B12
Free cash flow (derived)$6.11B7$6.47B8$11.3B9$10B9$8.92B9
Total debt$31.4B13$31.7B14$29.1B15$31.7B16$36.2B16
Cash & equivalents$9.25B17$7B18$6.98B19$6.89B20$9.98B20
Diluted shares548.5M530.4M513.6M489.4M472.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$451.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$188.06
Free cash flow it threw off
$188.82
Debt you’d be carrying
$766.67

10 shares is a claim on $451.37 of net worth that earned you $188.06 and generated $188.82 of cash last year, against $766.67 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 16%FY23 25%FY24 24%FY25 18%

It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−14% shares · 5y

Share count is down 14% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 15% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $193.08 and $1,025.22 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1,025.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth18.1%
  • fcfBase$10B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$578.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth18.1%
  • fcfBase$10B
Earnings Power Value
$193.08
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$8.88B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$139.25
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years18.1%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $578.71
The three cases
Bear0.0%$244.39
Base18.1%$578.71
Bull20.0%$628.14

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 18.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000018230-24-000009 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000018230-25-000008 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000018230-26-000008 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000018230-24-000009 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000018230-25-000008 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000018230-26-000008 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000018230-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000018230-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000018230-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000018230-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000018230-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000018230-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000018230-23-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000018230-24-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000018230-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000018230-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000018230-23-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000018230-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000018230-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000018230-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)