MeritValue

CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC

CASYdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC earns about 16% on equity, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $138.95 and $435.49 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$13B1$15.1B2$14.9B3$15.9B3$17.6B3
Net income$339.8M4$446.7M5$502M6$546.5M6$714.4M6
Operating cash flow$788.7M7$882M8$893M9$1.09B9$1.38B9
Capital expenditure$326.5M10$476.6M11$522M12$506.2M12$655.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$462.3M7$405.4M8$370.9M9$584.6M9$721.6M9
Total debt$3.3B13$3.25B14$3.17B15$4.91B16$4.75B16
Cash & equivalents$158.9M17$378.9M18$206.5M19$326.7M20$523M20
Diluted shares37.4M37.5M37.4M37.3M37.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,059.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$191.64
Free cash flow it threw off
$193.56
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,274.75

10 shares is a claim on $1,059.96 of net worth that earned you $191.64 and generated $193.56 of cash last year, against $1,274.75 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
16% avg · 5y
FY22 15%FY23 17%FY24 17%FY25 16%FY26 18%

It earned about 16% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 44% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $138.95 and $435.49 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$435.49
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth13.0%
  • fcfBase$584.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$271.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth13.0%
  • fcfBase$584.6M
Earnings Power Value
$138.95
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$502M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$214.85
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years13.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.97%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $271.7
The three cases
Bear0.0%$109.28
Base13.0%$271.7
Bull18.0%$356.29

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 13.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000726958-24-000046 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000726958-25-000065 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0000726958-26-000046 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000726958-24-000046 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000726958-25-000065 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0000726958-26-000046 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000726958-24-000046 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000726958-25-000065 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0000726958-26-000046 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000726958-24-000046 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000726958-25-000065 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0000726958-26-000046 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000726958-23-000059 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000726958-24-000046 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0000726958-25-000065 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-04-30 · accession 0000726958-26-000046 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000726958-23-000059 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000726958-24-000046 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0000726958-25-000065 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-04-30 · accession 0000726958-26-000046 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)