MeritValue

PATHWARD FINANCIAL, INC.

CASHdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

PATHWARD FINANCIAL, INC. earns about 50% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 26% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $65.97 and $266.03 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$549.9M1$601.1M2$727.7M3$797.4M4$839.9M4
Net income$141.7M5$151.1M6$143.3M7$183.2M7$185.9M7
Operating cash flow$581.6M8$290M9$327.9M10$488.8M10$450.6M10
Capital expenditure$13M11$8.18M12$8.62M13$10.1M13$11.7M13
Free cash flow (derived)$568.7M8$281.9M9$319.3M10$478.7M10$438.9M10
Total debt$92.8M14$36M15$59.9M15$787.4M16$51.5M16
Cash & equivalents$314M17$388M18$375.6M18$158.3M19$120.6M19
Diluted shares31.8M29.2M26.9M25.2M23.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$364.77
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$79.02
Free cash flow it threw off
$186.6
Debt you’d be carrying
$21.88

10 shares is a claim on $364.77 of net worth that earned you $79.02 and generated $186.6 of cash last year, against $21.88 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
50% avg · 5y
FY21 23%FY22 56%FY23 51%FY24 42%FY25 78%

It earned about 50% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−26% shares · 5y

Share count is down 26% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 45% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $65.97 and $266.03 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$246.33
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$438.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$266.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$438.9M
Earnings Power Value
$65.97
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$151.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$80.37
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $266.03
The three cases
Bear0.0%$266.03
Base0.0%$266.03
Bull5.0%$329.61

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000907471-22-000156 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000907471-23-000138 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000907471-25-000083 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000907471-25-000116 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000907471-23-000138 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000907471-25-000083 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000907471-25-000116 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000907471-23-000138 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000907471-25-000083 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000907471-25-000116 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000907471-23-000138 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000907471-25-000083 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000907471-25-000116 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000907471-22-000156 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000907471-25-000083 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000907471-25-000116 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000907471-22-000156 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000907471-25-000083 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000907471-25-000116 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)